Date: 18 Dec 2003
Time: 15:12
In a new study entitled ‘The World Military Rotorcraft Market – 2003 –2012’, Forecast International predicts that 5,179 military rotorcraft will be produced between 2003 and 2012, inclusive. The value of this production in constant 2003 U.S. dollars is US $79.6 billion. The total of 5,179 includes both new-build military rotorcraft and major modifications such as the Boeing CH-47F and the Sikorsky UH-60M.
Forecast International projects that annual military rotorcraft production will increase throughout nearly the entire 10-year time period covered by the new study. Production of 403 rotorcraft is projected for 2003, with annual output generally climbing through the following nine years. Production of 616 military rotorcraft is forecast for 2012, the last year of the forecast time frame.
The value of annual production is also predicted to climb through the 2003-2012 time period. In 2003, the value of military rotorcraft production is expected to total US $4.8 billion. Annual production values are then projected to rise to US $11.3 billion by 2012.
Overall, Forecast International projects that Sikorsky will lead the military rotorcraft market during the next 10 years, whether that market is measured in unit production or value of production. About 35% of the Sikorsky output is expected to be modified helicopters, primarily UH-60M Black Hawks for the U.S. Army. However, according to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “If modifications are excluded from the forecast, Sikorsky still emerges as the market leader, though with a reduced lead over the competition.”
Meanwhile, two upcoming procurements are drawing much attention. The U.S. Air Force intends to procure combat search-and-rescue (CSAR) helicopters to replace its HH-60Gs. The U.S. Marine Corps intends to acquire new executive/presidential transports. Sikorsky’s H-92 and AgustaWestland’s EH-101 are contending for the latter procurement. These two helicopters will also compete for the USAF programme, as might the NH 90. All three helicopters, often joined by other contenders, will likely battle for various sales throughout the next 10 years.
Forecast International is a leading provider of market intelligence and analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.